Tonight at 9 PM ET, #8 Michigan State takes on #4 Michigan at the Breslin Center on ESPN. The Spartans are 20-7 against the Wolverines since 1998, but this is by far the Wolverines best team since the Fab Five era.
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Projected Lineups
Michigan State | Michigan
G: Keith Appling | Trey Burke
G: Gary Harris | Nik Stauskas
F: Branden Dawson | Tim Hardaway Jr.
F: Adreian Payne | Glenn Robinson III
F: Derrick Nix | Jon Horford
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Michigan, who has one of the best offenses in the country, comes into tonight’s game after blowing a chance to be #1 in the country due to a crushing loss to Wisconsin. If you’ve been living under a rock for the past few days and don’t know what happened, watch this video.
Let’s look at the matchups coming into tonight’s game.
First of all, the biggest matchup by far will be Keith Appling vs Trey Burke at the point guard position. Trey Burke is a sophomore who decided to forego the NBA Draft last year, and this year is one of the (if not the) best players in the nation, averaging 18.2 points and 7.1 assists per game, including some stellar shooting from the field. Another thing worth noting about Trey Burke is his good handle on the ball, as he averages less than two turnovers per game. On the other side, there’s Keith Appling, who averages 14.1 points and 4.1 assists per game, but shoots a tiny bit better. Both of these players have improved tremendously from last year, but Burke is the clear better player. When being realistic, it’s obvious that Appling won’t be able to fully contain Trey Burke’s potent offense. All Appling has to do is slow Burke down just a tad and not rack up fouls quick. With Trice being out, Appling getting in foul trouble means that Gary Harris will most likely play the one guard spot, causing more turnovers than the Spartans can handle.
That brings us to the guard matchup, which is going to (most likely) be Gary Harris vs Nik Stauskas. Can someone say three point shootout? Hopefully Gary Harris can play a little bit of defense on Stauskas.
Next up is the Tim Hardaway Jr. vs Branden Dawson matchup. This is an odd matchup, mostly because Michigan uses Hardaway as a guard, even though he’s 6-foot-6. He’s a great shooter and has arguably been Michigan’s best player over the course of the past couple of weeks. It’ll be a good matchup to see Branden Dawson on him, because Branden Dawson should be able to do the best job on the team defending him (the only other option, really, is Gary Harris) and will hopefully be able to get to the bucket easier. Dawson can’t settle for jumpers.
At the power forward-esque position, the matchup will be between Adreian Payne and Glenn Robinson III, which is a really intriguing matchup. Glenn Robinson, despite being one of the “big men” in Michigan’s lineup, is only 6-foot-6. Adreian Payne, on the other hand, is 6-foot-10. Robinson III, a freshman, was named one of the candidates for Freshman of the Year (over Gary Harris, but that’s another story), but his play has dropped off significantly since they have started playing quality opponents. In the Wisconsin and Indiana games combined, he averaged 3 points and 25% shooting. Also, Robinson III doesn’t grab a lot of rebounds for a big man- only about 5.5. On the other team, Adreian Payne has been a great rebounder. However, he started off the season slow in the scoring department, but in his last nine games has averaged 12.1 points and shot 58.3% from beyond the arc. He’s only taken 12 threes, but all around his shot has looked really good. Payne making perimeter jumpers and three-pointers is not just a fluke anymore.
We’ve arrived at the center position, where the matchup will be between Derrick Nix and probably Jon Horford. Michigan’s starting center, Jordan Morgan, has missed a few games and is questionable for tonight. One would think Morgan wouldn’t miss the biggest game of the Wolverines’ season so far, but he’ll probably come off the bench best case scenario. We also have to remember that freshman Mitch McGary will get solid playing time, and he’s probably Michigan’s best center. Michigan State probably has the edge at this position, so it’s crucial for Derrick Nix to take advantage of this and dominate the Michigan big men a la the Indiana game, as he dominated Cody Zeller.
Coming off the bench for the Spartans will be Denzel Valentine, who will get a lot of playing time due to the Travis Trice injury. Also getting some significant playing time will be Alex Gauna and Matt Costello. The Spartans’ bench tonight will be thin.
Michigan’s bench tonight will definitely have the upper edge, with Mitch McGary, Caris LeVert, Spike Albrecht and possibly Jordan Morgan. Now, I don’t necessarily believe the Michigan bench has more talent than the Spartans, but they have a lot more depth right now.
Also, check out UMHoops preview of the game and The Only Colors preview of the game (with video!). Also, if you were worried about the attendance at the game tonight, you probably should check out @Thomassrich’s photo on twitter of the students lining up outside of the Breslin Center at 3:30.
Remember to follow us on twitter @BOTRC for live tweets and updates about the game.
Go green! Go white! Beat Michigan!
